Even with Saudi Arabia hiking its value-added tax (VAT) from July, businesses in the UAE and Bahrain are hopeful these governments would hold back for now. And even if they do raise it, it won’t be to the levels imposed by Saudi Arabia.
“Several
business sectors had submitted requests to the UAE authorities for a six-month
VAT holiday until things get back to normal and consumers regain their
confidence,” said the head of an industry grouping in Dubai. “The Saudi
announcement comes as a complete jolt, and it will be difficult for consumers
to sustain the tripling of VAT.”
The UAE
and Saudi Arabia rolled out VAT on January 1, 2018, and Bahrain followed
exactly a year later. The other Gulf states had delayed the transition to a VAT
regime. (VAT-generated revenue for UAE in 2018 was Dh27 billion. In
mid-November, Saudi Arabia said it had collected 46.7 billion riyals as VAT up
to that point.)
Before the COVID-19 crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had advised Saudi Arabia to increase its VAT rate to 10 per cent.
The UAE
is now holding a three-day government summit. Changes to VAT could be on the
agenda – more so, with Saudi Arabia announcing its plans on Monday. The UAE
has, for now, said there are no plans to hike VAT and match the Saudi move.
Why did Saudi Arabia triple
its VAT rate?
The Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan was fairly candid
about the reason. “These measures are painful, but necessary to maintain
financial and economic stability over the medium to long term. And to overcome
the unprecedented coronavirus crisis with the least damage possible.”
And this time, Saudi Arabia did not attempt to lessen the pain
on residents through offering incentives elsewhere. The kingdom will also be
withdrawing the cost-of-living allowance offered to Saudi nationals working in
the government sector.
According to Reuters, Saudi government had limited options, with
revenues from selling oil dropping significantly. Extended restrictions on
commercial activity through the COVID-19 lockdown period also hastened the
revenue drop.
“Any short- to medium-term austerity measures will be
significant and have a dramatic impact on businesses,” said Sachin Kerur, Head
of Middle East Region, Reed Smith. “But it is hard to see how the Saudi fiscal
position can be controlled without any shock treatment. After that, the
fundamentals for Saudi should remain strong and Vision 2030, albeit refined and
adjusted, can still play a key role in the beneficial diversification of the
Saudi economy.
“Minister Al-Jadaan has said the government could lose half of
its oil income, which contributes 70 per cent public revenues, given plummeting
oil prices. So this is not a surprise and indeed many businesses in Saudi
Arabia had been anticipating this for a little while now.
“Indeed, many expect more measures to come in soon. These latest
measures are an obvious and necessary response to the growing Saudi fiscal
deficit.”
What about UAE deciding not to raise VAT for now
Retaining VAT rates at the current 5 per cent would give this
market a significant price advantage over Saudi retail prices. Wherever such
price advantages open up, it creates opportunities for consumers and sellers.
“It’s unclear what the quantifiable advantages will be for
cross-border transactions,” said Sameer Lakhani, managing director at Global
Capital Partners. “But on the surface, it does appear that certain
‘arbitrage’ opportunities might open up if there are differences in VAT
rates.”
Kerur agrees there are gains. “But the reality is that
every regional government will implement its own fiscal measures to combat budgetary
pressures and these are likely to be tough across the whole region,” he
added.
What does it mean for the
consumer
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the two leading gold consuming
markets in the Gulf. But there are differences in the demand pattern. In Saudi
Arabia, the interest is principally for 21K gold and mostly from national and
Arab shoppers.
But in the UAE, 22K rules.
“The Saudi VAT hike to 15 per cent will have a significant
impact on domestic demand there,” said Abdulsalam K.P., executive director at
Malabar Gold & Diamonds and a member of Dubai Gold & Jewellery Group.
“In Saudi Arabia, there are two gold base rates – one for 21K (and which
includes making charges) and another for 22K.
“The 22K prices are comparable to Dubai, but 21K is already much
higher. With 15 per cent VAT, the price gap will widen further.”
Malabar operates 14 stores in the kingdom and confirmed it will
be shutting down two of those keeping in mind market circumstances.
“In the gold jewelry trade, there is a vast unorganized
retail sector, and with 15 per cent VAT hike, there are concerns there could be
higher incidence of under-reporting of sales,” said Salam.
What it might mean for
prices at local level
For Saudi consumers, a VAT increase will have a domino effect on
what they will eventually pay at the checkout counter in stores.
Cost of import and delivery will all ratchet up in proportion,
and these will add to the cost of merchandise at the store.
“Even if the duty amount is tolerable, the VAT, which is a
direct tax, will have an enormous effect on the price of landed goods,” said
Thomas Gregory, executive director at Fusion Specialized Shipping &
Logistics. “Along with duties, the landed cost is going to be costlier by 20
per cent.
“The direct impact of VAT on exports will not be a significant
impact as most services are exempted.”
On the cost of delivery, “Local moves will be impacted big time
as the VAT component has increased by 300 per cent. For example, if a local
move costs 500 Saudi riyals, with the new VAT rules, it could cost 575 riyals.
“With companies working at a 10-12 per cent margin, this could be seen as a
step that will increase product prices.
“Customers may refrain from buying non-essentials and luxury
goods, but essential commodities must move.
“Logistics is a derived demand, hence there will not be a
significant impact on the industry. It is a matter of time to get accustomed to
the new realities of life.”
courtesy : https://gulfnews.com/
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